Is the Red Dragon snarling again?

The India-China theatre is a hotbed of activity. There are Chinese intrusions on the border and Indian protests, Chinese military build-up and
India huffing and puffing to catch up.
Separately, China is building strategic stakes in India's neighbourhood, while India appears to be watching helplessly. Globally, the global economic crisis is catapulting China to the high table faster than India can say 'George Bush' - see how China only has to say "boo" for Barack Obama to keep Dalai Lama out of the White House.

Meanwhile, the boundary dispute remains unresolved because China has been repeatedly intransigent. On the other hand, India and China are on the same page on global issues, and on trade they are dancing their way to the bank.

Through all this, India maintains what appears to be a strange policy of appeasing the dragon. India allows the Dalai Lama to visit Arunachal in the teeth of Chinese howls, but pretends that intrusions by the Chinese have happened for years and the definition of "peace and tranquillity" is the absence of violence.

It all boils down to a failure to resolve the boundary dispute. While officials say they are moving "slowly but surely", strategists across the board in India say China's policy of low level intrusions serves to keep India off-guard, confused and groping and under pressure on the boundary. Its also a signal to India's other neighbours that India continues to fall short in being a "balancing power".

Ultimately, it has to do with Tibet, Tawang and the Dalai Lama. Tawang was always sacred for Tibetans, but China has only recently upped its claims for the state as it works through the Tibetan question, particularly giving itself the power to appoint the next Dalai Lama. Earlier, China wanted to do a swap of Aksai Chin and Tawang, but that’s off the table now.

But India is slowly learning to deal with a superior strategic competitor, its skills rusted by years of Pakistan-centric foreign policy. Speaking Punjabi works wonders in Pakistan, but knowing Mandarin doesn't always help in Beijing. Its the hard-nosed approach that does, and India is only now swallowing this unpalatable fact.

For the first time, the Indian envoy in Beijing was chosen for his professional skills rather than his language proficiency. During the most recent round of border talks, India told China it would insist on Chinese commitment to the 2005 Guiding Principles where it agreed that while demarcating the boundary, interests of settled populations would be taken into account. Extrapolated, it meant that Arunachal Pradesh would stay with India. The Chinese subsequently went back on that commitment, and India let them. Until now.

In the Indian Ocean, India is putting strategic stakes in Maldives, and Mauritius to assert its maritime power, and reasonably hopeful of courting the Sri Lankans away from the Chinese. As former foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon said in a lecture, "the Chinese don't have any bases in the Indian Ocean." Its an important reality check in the middle of all this hype. There also appears to be some fresh thinking on developing the Andaman & Nicobar Islands as a strategic post, as indicated by Shyam Saran, PM's special envoy, which would, if done right, take care of the Chinese "threat" in Myanmar. India is learning much needed lessons from tiny Taiwan that dealing with China needs nerve and grit - never India's strong suit.

On the Himalayan heights, however, the reality is very different, and frankly, India is largely responsible. While some of the "incursions" on the LAC are highly exaggerated by hyper-reporting, its undeniable that China's PLA has been guilty of intrusions and aggressive patrolling for at least a year now.

"Violations" by Chinese forces particularly in the western sector, resulted in 2285 instances in 2008, as compared to 778 instances in 2007. While Arunachal Pradesh has been repeatedly hit in the eastern sector, the Chinese have even opened up the resolved Sikkim border and the middle sector.

Militarily, China is streets ahead of India, with some 13 border defence regiments and many brigades along the border, so if, in these heated days, a conflict does indeed break out, India will be toast. China enjoys geographical advantage on the LAC and has built an advanced system of logistics. Indian troops have to go through much tougher terrain to get to their forward posts. China has built rail links between Beijing and Lhasa and onward to Xigaze and Yatung, near Nathu La. Lhasa could then be a train ride away from Nyingchi, just north of Arunachal. In the western sector, China is widening the Karakoram Highway, which links China to Pakistan, from all-weather traffic.

China is certainly a challenge, but India has to learn to face it openly rather than ducking behind diplomatic platitudes. There needs to be a multi-hued China engagement policy - for instance, unlike Pakistan, more engagement is always better with China, because frankly, Indians don't "understand" the Chinese. Can India start a "peace process" with China?

Why China Is Mad At India

China is well and truly mad at us. The latest provocation was a diplomatic coup that India pulled on China, getting the US, Japan and even Pakistan to vote for ADB funding for a $2.9 billion Indian development project, which includes a $60 million watershed development project in Arunachal Pradsh, a state, which China lays claim to.

Having refused assent a couple of months ago, China, this week lost a diplomatic battle as India got others on the board to vote for the project. China's refusal had India hopping mad, with the MEA telling ADB that it would reconsider its relationship with the multilateral financial institution.

Pranab Mukherjee, who was then the foreign minister, rallied his troops together to mount a diplomatic offensive, in the manner of the nuclear deal days. Pakistan, for instance, was told India would spike its funding requests for projects in the Northern Areas. Moreover, Pakistan and India have had a long tradition of voting with each other in multilateral institutions.

China was speechless with rage when the ADB meeting this week carried the project through. In retaliation, the Chinese foreign ministry lashed out at the organization, but actually lashed out at the other countries who voted for India.

In recent days China has taken a hardline against India's decision to station troops and elite fighter aircraft in the northeast. In a scathing editorial in Global Times, China basically asks India to back off.

"India has long held contradictory views on China. Another big Asian country, India is frustrated that China’s rise has captured much of the world’s attention. Proud of its "advanced political system," India feels superior to China. However, it faces a disappointing domestic situation, which is unstable compared with China's.

"India likes to brag about its sustainable development, but worries that it is being left behind by China. China is seen in India as both a potential threat and a competitor to surpass. "But India can’t actually compete with China in a number of areas, like international influence, overall national power and economic scale. India apparently has not yet realized this."

The editorial goes on to say, "India's growing power would have a significant impact on the balance of this equation, which has led India to think that fear and gratitude for its restraint will cause China to defer to it on territorial disputes.

"But this is wishful thinking, as China won’t make any compromises in its border disputes with India. And while China wishes to coexist peacefully with India, this desire isn't born out of fear.

"India's current course can only lead to a rivalry between the two countries. India needs to consider whether or not it can afford the consequences of a potential confrontation with China. It should also be asking itself why it hasn’t forged the stable and friendly relationship with China that China enjoys with many of India's neighbors, like Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

"Any aggressive moves will certainly not aid the development of good relations with China. India should examine its attitude and preconceptions; it will need to adjust if it hopes to cooperate with China and achieve a mutually beneficial outcome."

Indian officials fully expect many more ADB incidents to happen in the foreseeable future, and their view is, these should be tackled quietly. So they’ve been livid with the guys in uniform who have been vocal about articulating the "china threat." Which is unfair, because articulating these apprehensions or otherwise doesn’t alter reality.