Friday

Insecurity among Hindus in Balochistan


By Malik Siraj Akbar

A few years ago, my friend Basant Lal Gulshan, a reputed political representative of the Hindu community in Balochistan and currently a minister in Nawab Mohammad Aslam Raisani’s cabinet, visited me at my Daily Times bureau office inside Universal Complex on Jinnah Road, Quetta. We discussed over a cup of coffee amid irritating load-shedding in a July noon about the social, political and economic state of the Hindus, the largest religious minority in Balochistan.

“Basant, tell me one thing,” I said as he glanced at an Urdu newspaper lying on the large wooden table.

“What? Are you also trying to convert me into Islam?” he laughed and wittingly referred to one such question that he, and surely several other Hindus, had to grow up with in a Muslim-majority society.

“Aray no,” I immediately interrupted, “Just tell me, when did the Hindus first come to Balochistan and Where did they come from?”

Basant laughed loudly at what I subsequently realized was an absurd question.

“What do you mean that when and from where the Hindus came?” he explained, “Hindus are in fact the original inhabitants of this place. They were very much here even before the arrival of anyone else in Balochistan. Hindus have been living in Balochistan since time immemorial.”

Basant had a valid point. Hindus have lived in Balochistan for centuries. They have loved Balochistan for its secular and religiously tolerant culture. While millions of non-Muslims left for India at the time of Partition in 1947 from all three provinces of Pakistan, the Hindus of Balochistan, on the other hand, did not emulate their compatriots. They have not only lived in Balochistan with much respect and tranquility but also possessed exorbitant businesses in Quetta, the capital of Balochistan, and many other districts of the gas-rich province. One finds a sizeable number of Hindus running impressive businesses and offering laudable social services in the districts of Jaffarabad, Naseerabad, Bolan, Jhal Magsi, Sibi, Khuzdar, Kalat, Dera Bugti, Mastung, Quetta, Lasbela and other districts.

My journalistic mentor Siddiq Baluch often jokingly reminds me that if you pick up the telephone directory of one of these Baloch districts, you will find so many (Hinud surnames) Kumars, Kapoors and Sharmas that you will start believing for a while that you are searching the telephone directory of Mumbai or New Delhi.

The behavior of secular Baloch tribal chiefs has historically been friendlier than the State towards the Hindus minorities. For example, prominent Baloch leader Nawab Mohammad Akbar Khan Bugti, who was killed by Pervez Musharraf regime in a military operation, used to keep the Hindu population very close to his legendary fort in order to safeguard the religious minorities from the criminal elements present in the area. It was this reason that when the fort of Nawab Bugti was attacked by the Frontier Corps (FC) on March 17, 2005, a lot of Hindus, mainly women and children, were killed in the assault which was directed at the Baloch tribal chief and a former chief minister of the gas-rich province.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), the country’s foremost credible human rights watchdog, in its 2005 report “Conflict in Balochistan” issued the list of 31 Hindus, including 19 children, 3 women and 11 men, who were killed by the security forces in the attack on Nawab Bugti’s fort.

Another 24 Hindus were injured in the same attack. No investigation was ever carried out against the killing of innocent Hindus by the security forces nor was any one punished for this grave violation of human, more importantly minority, rights. Unapologetic about their actions, the security forces further intensified their war against democratic Balochs until it culminated in the state-sponsored murder of a former Baloch chief minister Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, 79.

Even in the most turbulent times, the Baloch leaders endeavored to ensure the safety and security of the Hindus. They were offered a sense of ownership and equal status in the society because of their peaceful nature, loyalty with their historic land and enormous contributions in the local businesses. They were never discriminated against on the basis of religion in the Baloch society where ethnic identity is still given preference over the religious identity.

Unfortunately, Balochistan has recently witnessed the surge of violence against Hindus with the rise of criminal activities. The provincial government, headed by the Pakistan People’s Party, has entirely failed to guard the life and property of the people living in the province. The presence of an incompetent government that has remained unable to maintain its writ in the province, several criminal groups have been encouraged to take the whole society hostage. These groups particularly target the Hindu businessmen in cases of kidnapping for ransom.

Since the Hindus are actively involved in local businesses and lack considerable representation in the local politics, media and the civil society, they have become a very soft target of the criminal groups. Dozens of Hindus have been kidnapped by these criminal groups from time to time in different parts of Balochistan. The provincial government has not taken tangible measures to immediately address this pressing issue.

The killing of Hamesh Kumar, a Hindu trader, in Quetta city and the kidnapping of his son, Rajesh, earlier this week is a graver reminder of an opening chapter of violence against religious minorities. No matter what the motives behind such desperate actions are, they lead to more insecurity among the members of the Hindu community. Insecure and terrorized Hindus bring shame to secular Balochistan. Therefore, Baloch tribal elders and nationalist parties should also rise to reiterate their commitment to minority rights.

Members of the Balochistan Assembly hailing from the minority community, including my friend Basant Lal Gulshan, staged a walk out during the previous session to vent their anger over the increasing violence directed at the Hindu community in Balochistan. The minority MPAs must not have walked out of the BA happily as all of them are already a part of the provincial government. They must not have done so to offend the provincial chief minister. In fact they did so as a last resort to draw the attention of the chief minister and the top officials of the provincial government towards the kidnapping and killing of Hindu traders.

It is, I admit, unfair to ask for selective justice from the government. After all, the responsibility of the government is to safeguard all members of the society irrespective of their religious and ethnic affiliations. On the other hand, one would hardly expect any improvement in the state of insecurity that has engulfed the Hindus of Balochistan for the reason that the province is already undergoing an anarchic phase of its history. Teasing tactics and violent behavior with the religious minorities is not the hallmark of the Baloch society and the current cycle of violence should be reversed.

The writer is the editor of The Baloch Hal: editor@thebalochhal.com

China's Discreet Hold on Pakistan's Northern Borderlands


By SELIG S. HARRISON

While the world focuses on the flood-ravaged Indus River valley, a quiet geopolitical crisis is unfolding in the Himalayan borderlands of northern Pakistan, where Islamabad is handing over de facto control of the strategic Gilgit-Baltistan region in the northwest corner of disputed Kashmir to China.

The entire Pakistan-occupied western portion of Kashmir stretching from Gilgit in the north to Azad (Free) Kashmir in the south is closed to the world, in contrast to the media access that India permits in the eastern part, where it is combating a Pakistan-backed insurgency. But reports from a variety of foreign intelligence sources, Pakistani journalists and Pakistani human rights workers reveal two important new developments in Gilgit-Baltistan: a simmering rebellion against Pakistani rule and the influx of an estimated 7,000 to 11,000 soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army.

China wants a grip on the region to assure unfettered road and rail access to the Gulf through Pakistan. It takes 16 to 25 days for Chinese oil tankers to reach the Gulf. When high-speed rail and road links through Gilgit and Baltistan are completed, China will be able to transport cargo from Eastern China to the new Chinese-built Pakistani naval bases at Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara, just east of the Gulf, within 48 hours.

Many of the P.L.A. soldiers entering Gilgit-Baltistan are expected to work on the railroad. Some are extending the Karakoram Highway, built to link China’s Sinkiang Province with Pakistan. Others are working on dams, expressways and other projects.

Mystery surrounds the construction of 22 tunnels in secret locations where Pakistanis are barred. Tunnels would be necessary for a projected gas pipeline from Iran to China that would cross the Himalayas through Gilgit. But they could also be used for missile storage sites.

Until recently, the P.L.A. construction crews lived in temporary encampments and went home after completing their assignments. Now they are building big residential enclaves clearly designed for a long-term presence.

What is happening in the region matters to Washington for two reasons. Coupled with its support for the Taliban, Islamabad’s collusion in facilitating China’s access to the Gulf makes clear that Pakistan is not a U.S. “ally.” Equally important, the nascent revolt in the Gilgit-Baltistan region is a reminder that Kashmiri demands for autonomy on both sides of the cease-fire line would have to be addressed in a settlement.

Media attention has exposed the repression of the insurgency in the Indian-ruled Kashmir Valley. But if reporters could get into the Gilgit-Baltistan region and Azad Kashmir, they would find widespread, brutally-suppressed local movements for democratic rights and regional autonomy.

When the British partitioned South Asia in 1947, the maharajah who ruled Kashmir, including Gilgit and Baltistan, acceded to India. This set off intermittent conflict that ended with Indian control of the Kashmir Valley, the establishment of Pakistan-sponsored Free Kashmir in western Kashmir, and Pakistan’s occupation of Gilgit and Baltistan, where Sunni jihadi groups allied with the Pakistan Army have systematically terrorized the local Shiite Muslims.

Gilgit and Baltistan are in effect under military rule. Democratic activists there want a legislature and other institutions without restrictions like the ones imposed on Free Kashmir, where the elected legislature controls only 4 out of 56 subjects covered in the state constitution. The rest are under the jurisdiction of a “Kashmir Council” appointed by the president of Pakistan.

India gives more power to the state government in Srinagar; elections there are widely regarded as fair, and open discussion of demands for autonomy is permitted. But the Pakistan-abetted insurgency in the Kashmir Valley has added to tensions between Indian occupation forces and an assertive population seeking greater of local autonomy.

The United States is uniquely situated to play a moderating role in Kashmir, given its growing economic and military ties with India and Pakistan’s aid dependence on Washington. Such a role should be limited to quiet diplomacy. Washington should press New Delhi to resume autonomy negotiations with Kashmiri separatists. Success would put pressure on Islamabad for comparable concessions in Free Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. In Pakistan, Washington should focus on getting Islamabad to stop aiding the insurgency in the Kashmir Valley and to give New Delhi a formal commitment that it will not annex Gilgit and Baltistan.

Precisely because the Gilgit-Baltistan region is so important to China, the United States, India and Pakistan should work together to make sure that it is not overwhelmed, like Tibet, by the Chinese behemoth.

Selig S. Harrison is director of the Asia Program at the Center for International Policy and a former South Asia bureau chief of The Washington Post.

Ps- Despite the strong Chinese denial, Indian authorities have now acquired "independent" confirmation about the increasing presence of Chinese troops along the line of control (LoC) in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir from none other than US security agencies.

Highly placed sources in the government told TOI on Saturday that US intelligence agencies have confirmed to Indian authorities about the increasing presence of Chinese troops all along the LoC.

The chief of the Northern Command, Lieutenant General K T Parnaik, had last week come out in the open with the disclosure about Chinese soldiers being based in PoK. The Chinese foreign ministry, however, denied this even describing these reports as baseless and ridiculous.

Thursday

Pakistan - The State Of The Union




The United States should support the implementation of the provincial autonomy provisions of the 1973 Constitution to reduce the dangerous growth of ethnic tensions that threaten Pakistan’s survival, and should condition future aid on action to disarm Lashkar-e-Taiba to prevent a new attack on India, recommended Selig Harrison, director of the Asia program at the Center for International Policy. In a session moderated by George Perkovich, Harrison discussed his latest report, “Pakistan: The State of the Union,” which highlights the dangers of ethnic tensions in Pakistan.

Harrison explained that Pakistan is an artificial political entity which consists of four ethnic groups—Punjabis, Pashtuns, Baluch, and Sindhis—that have historically never co-existed in the same body politic. Punjabis, with 45 percent of the population, dominate the Army and the state, and treat the minorities, collectively constituting 33 percent of the population, as pariahs, even though the minorities regard 72 percent of Pakistan territory as their ancestral homelands.


All of the minorities oppose Punjabi domination, and the Baluch have waged a non-stop insurgency since their forcible incorporation into Pakistan. The Pashtuns have been radicalized and many driven into the arms of Al Qaeda and the Taliban by the civilian casualties resulting from U.S. drone aircraft attacks.

Accommodate the Baluch, Return to the 1973 Constitution

The Baluch insurgency is fueled by Punjabi economic exploitation of Baluchistan. Forcibly incorporated into Pakistan by the Army in 1958, Baluchistan has never received a fair proportion of the revenues generated by its gas supply to other parts of the country. These tensions have created political instability:

• The Pakistani Army and the ISI have tried to divide the Baluch by buying them off, assassinating their leaders and incarcerating 900 Baluchi and Sindhi activists without access to lawyers or courts.

• The Baluch have begun to form alliances with the Sindhis to pursue the goal of a sovereign Baluch-Sindhi federation stretching from India to Iran. This goal is not likely to be achieved unless Lashkar-e-Taiba stages another attack on India, a new India-Pakistan war erupts, and India abandons its present policy of supporting a stable Pakistan and adopts a new policy of support for separatist policies there.

• Although Pakistan has accused India of supplying arms to the Baluch for years, these accusations are not credible because Baluch insurgent groups use ineffectual small arms. However, India could easily supply large-scale sophisticated weaponry and funds. Even without Indian assistance, the insurgents’ paramilitary capabilities are likely to increase in the future.

• Pakistan needs to implement the 1973 constitution and devolve power to the provinces to prevent the Baluch insurgency from derailing its economic development.

Prevent the Merger of Taliban and Pashtun Nationalism

Harrison pointed out that only 50.5 percent of the Pashtun electorate had voted to become part of Pakistan in 1947, in a referendum which did not provide the option of an independent “Pashtunistan” proposed by the elected Pashtun leadership of the Northwest Frontier Province. Post-1947, Pakistan’s right to rule over Pashtun areas has been challenged by all the regimes in Afghanistan, including the Pakistan-supported Taliban. Pashtun resentment against Pakistan has only grown in the last few years:

• The sense of Pashtun victimization at the hands of outside forces resulting from the drone attacks has allowed the Taliban to pose as a champion of both Pashtun nationalism and Islam.

• If the merging of Pashtun nationalism and Taliban is to be reversed, the United States must stop drone attacks and focus on encouraging local peace deals. It must also support the political goals of the FATA Pashtuns, who do not want to be ruled by the Punjabi dominated central government, and push for the integration of Punjab FATA and NWFP.

• The United States should encourage the creation within Pakistan of “Pakhtunkhwa,” a unified Pashtun province which would bring together FATA, NWFP and the Pashtun areas of Punjab and Baluchistan. Such support for the Pashtun desire to be politically united would improve the psychological climate necessary for Pashtun cooperation in the campaign against al Qaeda.

Restructure U.S. Aid to Pakistan

Harrison concluded by outlining immediate steps that the U.S. should take to reduce ethnic tensions in Pakistan and to focus its attention on Punjabi Islamist groups.

• Implement the provincial autonomy provisions of the 1973 Constitution.

• Reduce military aid for Pakistan substantially because it is used mainly on the India front, not the Afghan border, and the Army is the main obstacle blocking the constitutional reforms necessary to stabilize the federation.

• Condition aid to Pakistan to disarming Lashkar-e-Taiba, which poses a greater threat to Pakistan than the Taliban. Another attack on India by Lashkar-e-Taiba could lead to Indian retaliation or support for the Baluch cause, which could lead to a break up of Pakistan.

In the Q&A session, Harrison argued that the Al-Qaeda threat should be managed by covert operations rather than drone strikes, in order to minimize civilian casualties and radicalization of the Pashtuns.

Full Report Here- http://www.ciponline.org/asia/reports/pakistan_the_state_of_the_union.pdf

By -George Perkovich, Selig Harrison

Indian Conspiracy to destroy pakistan through export of BeetleNut!! REALLY ;-)


All credits to official Pakistani ''news report'' http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?id=159945

India appears to have finally cracked the code on how to completely cripple Pakistan.

India has evolved a master plan to cause severe damage to Pakistan economy under the garb of talks and assigned an important target to its intelligence agency RAW to provide over one trillion rupees to anti Pakistan Taliban through Afghan transit.

Well placed sources told Online Saturday that Indian intelligence agency RAW has started providing financial assistance to Taliban through alcohol and beetle nut (chalia) under Afghan trade to use them to serve its nefarious designs while they were earlier being assisted through drug trafficking.

Sources told RAW at present was supplying over two hundreds containers of alcohol and beetle nut illegally to anti Pakistan Taliban every month in the name of different companies through Afghan transit. This way billion of rupees are being distributed among Taliban so that on one side Pakistan economy could be undermined and on the other side Afghan Taliban could be strengthened financially in order to use them for fulfillment of its vicious designs.

Sources further told during the recent visit of foreign secretary Suleman Bashir to India and Afghan president Hamid Karzai both India and Afghanistan demanded of Pakistan to allow them transit trade through Wahga border. While the security agencies were of the opinion if transit trade was allowed through Wahga border to Afghanistan and India, this will deliver a serious blow to Pakistan economy.

On the condition of anonymity, a senior officer of Custom Intelligence confirmed to Online Bhattia traders, M.H International, Troob well traders and other companies were supplying containers of alcohol and beetle nut in large number to Afghanistan while Afghan people neither use beetle nut nor drink alcohol, therefore he was much concerned over export of beetle nut and alcohol in such huge quantity to Afghanistan by Indian companies. "I am helpless to take any action in this regard due to pressure of some influential figures", he added.

The Customs Intelligence Officer further told that top figures of customs, NLC and Saif transporters were involved in illegal supply of these containers. These containers were handed over to Taliban near Pak-Afghan borders instead of transporting them to Afghanistan, he pointed out. Online tried to contact FBR chairman on many occasions to ascertain his stance as to what extent Pakistan was suffering financial loss due to illegal trade of containers and non payment of taxes but it could not contact him.

Friday

Osama bin Who?-Pakistan caught in a web of lies


A decade of denials and downplaying from Pakistani leaders.
BY CHARLES HOMANS, JOSHUA KEATING, DAVID KENNER

Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed by U.S. special forces on Sunday in the resort town of Abbottabad, just two hours from the Pakistani capital. This ended a nearly decade-long manhunt for the 9/11 mastermind as well a decade of dubious denials from Pakistani leaders that he could possibly be in their country.

Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's ambassador to the United States

"Pakistan's Ambassador to the US Hussain Haqqani rejected a NATO official's claim on Monday that al Qaeda Chief Osama bin Laden is living comfortably in a house in the northwest of Pakistan, saying there was no basis to it. 'This is speculation because if he knew it, it would be actionable intelligence and we would act on it.'"

Speaking to CNN on Oct. 20, 2010, Ambassador Haqqani also slammed those insinuating that there might be some link between Pakistan's intelligence services and al Qaeda: "If anybody who thinks that Pakistan or any other state, for that matter, has any interest in protecting bin Laden, who has brought nothing but mayhem to the world, is smoking something they shouldn't be smoking."

Following the news of bin Laden's capture, Haqqani defended Pakistan's inability to locate the terror chief, even as he resided right under its military's nose, by referring to one of the United States' most notorious law enforcement failures: "If Whitey Bulger can live undetected by American police for so long, why can't Osama bin Laden live undetected by Pakistani authorities?" he wondered.

Asif Ali Zardari, president of Pakistan

"The Americans tell me they don't know, and they are much more equipped than us to trace him. And our own intelligence services obviously think that he does not exist any more, that he is dead.... The question is whether he is alive or dead. There is no trace of him." - Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to reporters, April 28, 2009.

President Zardari often downplayed the existence of Osama bin Laden, claiming that his country had no information regarding the whereabouts of the al Qaeda leader. And it appears that even when U.S. intelligence assets finally did amass information regarding bin Laden, they weren't inclined to share: Though in his late-night speech President Barack Obama thanked the government of Pakistan for their assistance in the killing of Osama bin Laden, Pakistan's intelligence services were not kept in the loop regarding the impending operation. Obama telephoned Zardari shortly after the operation was completed, but the president has not yet commented publicly on bin Laden's killing.

Yousuf Raza Gilani, prime minister of Pakistan

"I doubt the information which you are giving is correct because I don't think Osama bin Laden is in Pakistan." - ­Press conference with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Dec. 3, 2009

Gilani's statement came in response to a suggestion by Brown that Pakistan's government was not doing enough to hunt down senior al Qaeda leaders. Gilani followed up on the remarks in an interview with the Guardian saying, "If they [the U.S. and British intelligence services] have any credible or actionable information, they can share it and we can act on it." Gilani, however now seems happy to jump on the bandwagon, called bin Laden's killing a "great victory" for Pakistan. "We will not allow our soil to be used against any other country for terrorism," said Gilani.

Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Pakistani army chief

"[U.S. Sen. Joe] Lieberman then asked about the status of the search for Osama bin Laden and [Ayman] al-Zawahiri. It was unjust to criticize Pakistan for not locating these men, asserted Kayani, and he would place Pakistan's track record in pursuing and capturing al-Qaida operatives up against any other country's." - State Department cable sent from the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad on Jan. 11, 2008, obtained by WikiLeaks.

Since Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) falls under the authority of the country's military leaders, top army official Ashfaq Parvez Kayani presumably would have known as much about bin Laden's whereabouts as anyone in the Pakistani government. But if he did have an inkling as to where the terrorist leader was hiding, he wasn't telling anyone in the U.S. government, preferring instead to talk loosely about the army's "successes" against al Qaeda. Adding to the embarrassment, the New York Times reports that just last month, Kayani had visited a military academy in Abbottabad, the town in which bin Laden was found and killed on May 1. There, Kayani "proclaimed that Pakistan had 'cracked' the forces of terrorism, an assessment that was greeted with skepticism in Washington."

Pervez Musharraf, former president of Pakistan

"I think now, frankly, he is dead for the reason he is a ... kidney patient.... I don't know if he has been getting all that treatment in Afghanistan now. And the photographs that have been shown of him on television show him extremely weak.... I would give the first priority that he is dead and the second priority that he is alive somewhere in Afghanistan." -Interview with CNN. January 18, 2002

Throughout his tenure, the former Pakistani president repeatedly denied or downplayed reports that bin Laden was hiding in his country. Musharraf's oft-stated opinion was that whether or not bin Laden was still at large "doesn't mean much" -- the threat to his regime from Taliban-linked militants in the country's northwest was much greater. In a 2010 interview after he had left office, Musharraf wouldn't say for sure whether he would have handed bin Laden over to the United States, calling it a "difficult question of answer" because of the "great sensitivities" surrounding the al Qaeda leader.

Responding today to the news of bin Laden's death, the former president called it a "positive step," but criticized the United States for violating Pakistani sovereignty in the operation. "It's a violation to have crossed Pakistan's borders," he said.

Rehman Malik, interior minister of Pakistan

"Representative Giffords asked Malik whether he had information about the whereabouts of Osama [b]in Laden. Malik responded that he ‘had no clue,' but added that he did not believe that [b]in Laden is in the area. Bin Laden sent his family to Iran, so it makes sense that he might have gone there himself, Malik argued. Alternatively, he might be hiding in Saudi Arabia or Yemen, or perhaps he is already dead, he added."- State Department cable, Sept. 7, 2009, meeting between Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik and U.S. congressional delegation.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), who would herself become the victim of a brutal shooting in January, tried to pin down Pakistan's interior minister about bin Laden's whereabouts in a September 2009 meeting, according to a State Department cable released by WikiLeaks. Malik deflected the inquiry, suggesting that bin Laden might have moved on or was already dead.

But that's not the only time that Malik shot his mouth off about bin Laden. "I categorically deny the presence of Osama bin Laden, his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, and even Mullah Omar in any part of Pakistan," he also said.

Farhatullah Babar, Zardari spokesman:

"If there were officials who knew where bin Laden was, I can assure you that he would not be a free man. The fact is that at the moment we don't even know if he's alive or dead." - The Daily Telegraph, May 11, 2010

Babar was responding to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's claim that the Pakistanis knew more about bin Laden's whereabouts than they were letting on: "I'm not saying that they're at the highest levels," said Clinton in a CBS News interview, "but I believe that somewhere in this government are people who know where Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda is, where Mullah Omar and the leadership of the Afghan Taliban is, and we expect more cooperation to help us bring to justice, capture or kill those who attacked us on 9/11."


Pakistan caught in a web of lies
By Arif Rafiq, May 2, 2011

With great passion last year, Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik said, "I categorically deny the presence of Osama bin Laden, his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, and even Mullah Omar in any part of Pakistan."

Now, with the capture of bin Laden in Pakistan -- only 40 miles from Malik's office - it's more difficult than ever to consider his statements, and those of his civil and military counterparts, credible. Since 9/11, Pakistan's leaders have been lying to the United States, neighboring countries, their own people, and even to one another about fundamental elements of the war on terror.

On 9/11, Washington told Islamabad it was faced with a choice: you're either with us or with the terrorists. Islamabad hedged its bets and basically chose both. Pakistan's military and intelligence services remain allied with Afghanistan's three major insurgent groups: Mullah Omar's Quetta Shura Taliban, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-i Islami, and the network of longtime militant Jalaluddin Haqqani. Yet the same military and intelligence services have played an essential role in preventing major attacks on Western targets since 9/11, saving the lives of countless non-Pakistanis.

Pakistani troops have fought valiantly in their own war on terror -- a civil war that has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of Pakistanis, security personnel, innocent civilians, as well as militants and terrorists.

Chief of Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani commemorated his military servicemen's sacrifices at the third annual martyrs' day this weekend. As he supplicated for the thousands of fallen Pakistani servicemen, the usually emotionless Kayani fought back his tears. Kayani told the audience that Pakistan would not sell its national integrity -- by inference, to the United States -- for prosperity. But the real focus of his address was this: Pakistan faces a long-term fight against terrorists from within.

Since the launch of major counterinsurgency operations in Swat in 2009, the Pakistan Army has launched a persistent information operations campaign to pit its populace against the set of militants it fights. But it is dependent on stoking anti-American, not anti-al-Qaeda, sentiments. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and allies -- in the language of the army and its allies in the Pakistani media -- were not waging jihad, but fasad (mischief). They were fighting the Pakistan army not for its support of the United States in the war on terror, but because of an outside campaign to destabilize Pakistan, legitimize the seizure of its nuclear weapons, and potentially even break up the country. And the terrorists were not simply sons of the soil motivated by revenge and poisoned by a bastardization of their religion - no, they were witting or unwitting agents of a CIA-Mossad-RAW [Indian intelligence] nexus aimed at destroying Pakistan. Al-Qaeda, an organization whose leaders have openly declared war on the Pakistani state, was rarely mentioned.

And so today it remains unclear what exactly happened during the fatal raid yesterday. Were some elements of Pakistan's military-intelligence apparatus aware of the operation? Did they give their consent? Did they even cooperate? Reports that the U.S. helicopters took off from the Ghazi airbase in Tarbela, where American Special Operations Forces have been training their Pakistani counterparts, suggests that there was some Pakistani involvement in the operation that captured and killed bin Laden.

However, U.S. officials state that no other country was aware of the operations (a position now backed up by Pakistan's military), in which bin Laden was caught hiding less than a mile away from Pakistan's West Point and a short flight away from the capital. And so it's possible that Pakistan was caught with its pants down, having failed to stop or even spot the American incursion.

Publicly, U.S. officials are not aggressively putting pressure on Pakistan, though it will face tough questions from Congress and the media about how the world's most wanted terrorist could live for years in the shadow of major Pakistani army institutions, in what is essentially an army garrison town. Privately, one can expect greater pressure from Washington on Islamabad and Rawalpindi to "do more." Will Pakistan be able to continue its dual policy of supporting some militants and also partnering with the United States?

Inside the Pakistan Army's ranks, one can expect greater pressure on Kayani, Inter-Services Intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, and possibly even Air Force Chief Marshall Rao Qamar Suleman. Kayani has already been lambasted since the mid-March release of Raymond Davis, a Central Intelligence Agency contractor who shot dead two Pakistanis in Lahore in January. Given the record of attacks by radical serving and retired officers against the military leadership and other officers since 9/11, it's highly likely that threats against the military from within will rise. And al-Qaeda and its affiliates -- including the TTP and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi -- are certain to lash out in anger against the Pakistani state and civilians.

Irrespective of whether it helped capture bin Laden, having both aided and worked against the United States and Islamic militants, and with the killing of bin Laden in mainland Pakistan, the Pakistani military-intelligence apparatus is now caught in its own web of lies. Getting out of it won't be pretty.

Arif Rafiq is president of Vizier Consulting, LLC, which provides strategic guidance on Middle East and South Asian political and security issues. He writes at the Pakistan Policy Blog (www.pakistanpolicy.com).

Wednesday

Today's energy giant, tomorrow's Walmart for digital services: RIL Chairman, Mukesh Ambani


The Economic Times

The best way to understand Mukesh Ambani's mind is to think of Reliance as a company with two businesses: energy and consumer. In a conversation with Bodhisatva Ganguli & Himangshu Watts, Ambani says RIL will find more hydrocarbons and build a new-age digital and consumer business from scratch.


The tie-up with BP is a paradigm shift for RIL. Historically, you have controlled 100% of your core assets. So, what is the thinking behind this? And is this also the way forward in future?

Well, if you have followed Reliance, you should have noticed that Reliance now has over 50 JVs. The general principle of business is that once you achieve critical mass and size in any market, then to expand the domain or the market you need partnerships. The whole idea behind doing the BP piece is that we are determined to grow faster than before. It's general industry practice. If you look at the E&P industry globally, nobody holds 100% of a basin forever, including a Chevron or an Exxon .

The 50:50 JV that you are planning with BP for city gas distribution is a bit unusual as you don't have a majority control in that?

We, in fact, now have a lot of 50:50 JVs, we have 51:49 and 49:51. Our logic is wherever you are building new competencies - (and) in my view, gas distribution , marketing and sourcing is completely new - (in such cases) it's much better whenever both people bring equal value to the table. (Then) you are better off doing 50:50 so that there is so much more skin in the game. You are putting the reputations of both names on the line. Then there are absolutely critical businesses in which you need to keep a majority stake, like in our E&P business. Here we have given BP only 30%. E&P is our core, it will stay our core, but we needed to bring in a partner with critical technology capabilities.

So you will be looking at building an LNG import terminal?

We will, once the venture fructifies. We will go through a feasibility phase... but the potential in India exists in terms of integrating world gas markets with the Indian gas markets.

What is the state of play in KG-D 6?

The project has 3-4 distinct areas. One, how well you have designed it, and two, how well you have executed it. Both are 100% in your control. In my view, we have beaten industry standards in both these areas. If you take the last three major gas developments in the world, they have taken anywhere between 3 and 5 years to stabilise . We stabilised in 30 days. There we have outperformed. The third factor is geology, which is natural and completely out of your control. Prasad (PMS Prasad, the RIL director in charge of E&P ) will explain to you all the complex models that we go through in evaluating the geological parameters. This requires reasonable time and data. Basically, KG is a thin sand reservoir which is unique in the world. In a normal reservoir, you can put one well and take everything out. In thin sands, the gas is segregated by sands in between. Think about it like an aquifer or an underground water reservoir, which has multiple levels and is spread over a large area. You just can't drill one well and take the water out. Now, there is technology available today, but we need just enough data to figure out whether you need a horizontal well or a vertical well. You need to approach it patiently and carefully to get the right solution at the right cost. It is not like what Saudi Arabia has or Gulf of Mexico has. That's why we brought in BP. Let's be clear - this is the largest deep water gas facility in the world today. We have to be patient. The good news is all of the gas is there and can be tapped.

What is BP's role?

They are double-validating all our data. They are looking at exactly the same things that we are looking at. It's like the diagnosis of a problem - two docs look at the same X-rays for a second opinion. The teams are already integrated.

Do you think the regulator is receptive to your concerns?

I think so. We understand that the government's framework is different. They have to do their due diligence. We respect their framework, and have always cooperated with them. They understand our point of view also. Fundamentally, this was Reliance's risk money that was invested in KGD 6. If we had not found anything, no customer or regulator would have come, and we would have had to write off this investment.

Because of circumstances all of us are aware... a cap has been introduced on gas pricing at $4.2? Should it be scrapped or lifted?

I think that, ultimately, all gas price in future, even in D6, has to be market-determined . That is what the government's own Production-Sharing Contract (PSC) says. That's what the Supreme Court says. If you have read the Supreme Court judgment, it's fairly clear that the PSC has to be honoured by both sides. It says the government is the owner of gas and should get the highest price for the gas. You cannot underprice. Since it is a government-owned resource, people in the government have to justify very strongly why they would subsidise private sector power and fertiliser plants and, thereby, forgo its own significant revenue that can be better used for common people's welfare. Sooner or later, they will have to follow the PSC, which will be marketrelated pricing.

RIL has big investment plans. Are you looking at strategic alliances in other businesses like telecom?

Right now, what we are thinking is two major areas . One is energy, and the other is consumer. We include technology in the consumer vertical. Within energy, we will continue to invest. We have the KG basin, we have the Mahanadi basin, where we think we have more than half-a-billion barrels of oil potential, and we have just announced in the Kaveri basin. These three basins will require large amounts of investment. The good news is that these three basins are prospective . Obviously, we will invest there with BP. The other piece where we see big growth potential and are willing to commit big investments is what I call technology. Really, all of shale in the US is technology business. So, fundamentally , the whole directional shift in Reliance is that we are really, really focusing on creating value for our shareholders. That's basically where we think that we now have the capability and the opportunity - not to mention, a responsibility to contribute to India's prosperity and development. Reliance is proud of its irrefutable contribution to India's energy security , which is today an important aspect of national security. We will now get the best technological help. It will be difficult, but we will get there. Nothing is easy. As soon as we understand this geology, I think the engineering solutions, in which we are very good at, will extract all the gas at KG-D 6 in a sustainable way. I think we are among the best in the world in E&P , primarily because in the Indian gene pool, the DNA of problem-solving exists. We are even helping our counterparts in the US in shale gas. Because what is shale gas? It's horizontal drilling and taking the gas out. In technological innovation, we will see a lot of potential in what I call value-added chemicals. The quality of life is improving in India, so we see a lot of growth in polyester and plastics. Therefore, we are reinvesting in these traditional businesses of RIL. We are developing a whole new rubber business. We will make RIL one of the world's largest players in rubber as the whole tyre industry moves to Asia. The big trend is that if you look at the next 10 years, the projections for automobile growth are all China, India and Asia-focused .

When you say very large, what do you mean exactly?

It will be of a significant scale and size to cater to Asia's needs for the next 10 years.

Where will it be located? At Jamnagar?

It will be located at all our three sites depending on where we have the feedstock. So it will be at Hazira, Jamnagar, some at Baroda.

Is there any plan to enter the tyre industry?

No, we will be suppliers to the tyre industry.

What are the big things in chemicals?

We believe that hygiene will be a very big market in a rapidly prospering India where people's aspirations are rising. You look at diapers, female hygiene - most of the super absorbents come from our industry. So we can integrate and really think about low-cost hygiene to improve the quality of life for the masses. Personal care and home care is the other big piece, because the market for these products is booming in India due to our demographics. Most of it is unique to us, with such a large exposure on the refinery side. Most of the chemical industry depends on feedstock. We can become the largest supplier to private-label players. That is an integrated energy play based on innovation and technology. Only two or three people in the world understand how to convert fatty oil into cosmetics cream, which could soon be used by over 300 million women in India. How can you really , really get that market cracked to a quality level that is better than everybody in the world and to a cost level that is one-tenth of the world? That's what attracts us.

What are the investments in the chemical business?

These are $10-12 billion.

Many speculate you will make a big-ticket acquisition and in your last AGM, you had said that you will plant the tricolour in many parts of the world. Any progress on that front?

We look at these things on an ongoing basis. There will be a lot of volatility and uncertainty in this world. But, I'm a wildlife fan. I love the leopard. The leopard sits on top of a tree. It doesn't take any great risks. Whenever it sees that it can make a kill, it's in no hurry whatsoever to make a kill. It makes the kill so rapidly, you don't even know. And I've actually sat with leopards for hours in lots of forests. It just happens in a flash. And, again, the leopard goes back and sits there aaram se. So, as I tell all our guys, let's not get too much carried away. It's important to keep the balance sheet capability to do this stuff but we shouldn't be in a hurry. We should be watching , we shouldn't be ignoring anything. But unless we feel absolutely safe that we are not going to hurt ourselves, and we are going to go down there, kill 100% and bring it back, we won't do anything funny. We are in no hurry. And we'll never do it for ego's sake. Our watchword is: does it generate value for our shareholders on a sustainable and long-term basis?

Would you say that is a change from the mindset RIL had, say 10 years ago?

I will say that we have evolved, just as any dynamic and future-focused business entity must, in response to the changing national and international environment. We are doing what is appropriate at every stage of our evolution.

In telecom, will there be a partial roll-out this fiscal?

We said we are investing in the future. We are still in the conceptualisation phase. In our mind it's integrated with our consumer vision. We know where the telecom and Internet technologies are moving. We know how they are fundamentally changing the world, and they can be the biggest change agent in India, too. We know the aspirations of the Indian customers. This is not an unfamiliar area for us. Right now, I believe that the better and more integrated our plan is, the more guaranteed is its success.

New-age telecom anywhere else in the world, especially in the US, integrates internet, entertainment, etc. So is that the plan for your foray in telecom?

It's even beyond that. It's education, health, agriculture , food security, environment protection, sustainable employment creation. In my mind, it's very early days in setting standards for technology . We don't need to make a rash move. We don't see it as a telecom play. It's value-added data services. Data is still nascent. We want to integrate our society's diverse needs and aspirations in an integrated, innovative and affordable delivery platform.

So, where do you see telecom and retail fitting in this consumer space?

We are betting the whole company on technology innovation culture. Within energy, we will be looking at the next new forms of energy. Innovation is also the key to growing in the consumer space. India is bound to become a huge market for consumer products. People's aspirations for a better quality of life must be respected. At the same time, we cannot replicate the western model here. The challenge is: how do we ensure a better quality of life for our one billionplus people within the parameters of sustainable development? Reliance will rise to this challenge. In the same way that we rose to the challenge in the energy space over a decade ago. I believe that India will be a $5-trillion economy well before 2025, and it will have a $2.5-trillion consumption market. What is this consumption? The way I look at it, there is physical consumption which will never go away - the food that we eat, the clothes that we wear. Not many people recognise it, but RIL is today the country's largest food retailer as we speak.

This is all led by Reliance Fresh?

Yes, Reliance Fresh and all our value formats. I see food more and more in retail. We see the same in apparel. As Reliance Trends, we will be the largest soon. We think there will be huge growth in all the appliances you have at home and, not to forget, jewellery. So these are all individual pieces but also combined in our value format. As I see in the next 10 years, the other piece where we can bring that revolution to India is the whole digital revolution. Each one of us will consume services digitally. We want to be the Walmart of digital distribution. There is a fantastic opportunity to provide affordable videoenabled digital services to crores of people in healthcare, agriculture, urban-rural market linkages, government-citizen interfaces, and also to increase productivity and employment potential in the informal sector of the economy which provides livelihood to more than 90% of the labour force, etc. So, you see, RIL's future plans are, as always, closely aligned to India's national goals. All this depends on technology and innovation, which is our new mantra.

For all these new ventures, will you be looking at getting talent from outside?

Yes. Continuously. At RIL, we are doing three things. Most of our money is going into the technology space - innovation, generation of value either in the energy or the consumer space. This, then, is our continuous vision for the next 5 to10 years. We look at the global space from an opportunistic standpoint. We have appetite at all times to do something unique in the technology and innovation space. We think our shale gas initiatives in USA are more in technology and innovation space because we know that we can generate a reasonable economic return through technology innovation. We know we can bring those drilling costs down. Even if gas prices don't improve in the US, we will get our returns. Then there is a separate piece where we are focusing on how to cater to these new evolutions, how to create and sustain and enhance our overall talent.

Are you looking at grooming talent in-house ? Or getting new fresh talent?

We are doing a combination of everything. Fundamentally, we think it requires re-engineering or regenerating the whole human resources architecture. It's very difficult to do. When you think about performance, it's not only people architecture or talent but people performing in a growth-nurturing ecology. You really have to regenerate the environment. It's like colleges. I have been on the advisory board of Stanford and a few other colleges where we change the environment every 10 years. At this stage, we are going through a project where we will have a process whereby we will take everything we have learnt and really mentor and train our 30-34-year-old guys to be better than us. It's a regeneration of the 4-5 pillars we stand on...and not only our existing talent but also welcoming fresh talent. We want our people to be internally happy, because happiness and success should go together. I want everybody at RIL to achieve their true potential . We want to create a new culture in which you will be reasonably transparent to yourself, your peers and your team. That, in my mind, will lead to true innovation . This is the most important and exciting project of my life: How do you really transform and reengineer 40,000-50 ,000 people, most of them professionals, most of them ambitious, most of them very successful, and then tell them to mentor and train 30-34-year-olds and make them better than us. This, according to me, is the sign of a truly New Age business organisation.

This is very interesting. Who else is working with you and what are the broad contours of this business transformation ? What exactly are you putting in place? Where do you see this exercise in the next 5 years?

What we are putting in place is what I call the Next Generation Reliance. Clearly, creating a foundation for the future growth of Reliance to make sure that we not only can retain our existing talent and at all times make sure that we can attract right talent in our businesses. And the right way to think about is what you build is an architecture, a path of evolution . I believe nothing is static in life. What we are doing now is based on our knowledge and putting down a 2012-15 architecture, which will evolve.

So, are you aggressively hiring from B-school campuses and other professional colleges? What has the response been?

The response has been very good. Our own hiring standards are very different. At this stage, we are creating an architecture. Most of what was in our head has been put down in place. We have pretty much finished that exercise. We have virtually all the top-5 consult-ants in the world working with us globally.

What will the Reliance organisational structure look like?

The easiest way to think about is that we create an operating model. Within that we create the business model architecture, the organisational architecture . And then there is the financial architecture : how do we create shareholder return? Within that there is the regulatory architecture. And then there is the consumer architecture - how do we maximise the value proposition to the consumer ? When you put all this together, they actually have to gel. And then there is the employee piece. How do you take an employee, fresh out of college and help him navigate through Reliance? How do you give him a 15-20 year view? And how do you add value? Like we have a customer value, we now say that we have an employee value proposition.

Are there 5 or 6 people who are future leaders of Reliance, who we do not know about now?

There are between 80-100 people.

Would you look at listing other businesses like chemicals , rubber?

There has to be a rationale. We have done dual listings . We don't see a compelling reason to do it in a hurry.

What do you think can spoil the growth story?

I think the India growth story is unstoppable. I look at it as an opportunity in the acceleration mode. What it needs is a supportive governance environment at all levels.

What are the key reforms you are looking forward to?

More than reforms, we should recognise that we are at the crossroads. We shouldn't celebrate too early. We have a long way to go. Along with reforms , we have to have a collective resolve to solve problems in areas like education. Our education sector needs to be liberated urgently, without a day's further delay. If we want to fulfil our young people's dreams, we must create capacity and quality on a massive scale. We can create a revolution simply by freeing our universities from government control and by allowing new private universities to be set up. If that happens, I can visualise India becoming a hub of higher education globally within the next 10 years.

Aren't you disappointed with the level of corruption with a clean PM in charge?

We have a vibrant society, a vigilant media and an independent judiciary. We are dealing with our problems in a mature way. We shouldn't really deprecate ourselves. I strongly believe that India needs systemic reforms to reduce corruption.

One big societal opportunity in India?

The big societal opportunity - and an equally big need - in India is housing. When I went to the US in 1980, I was surprised - Kya desh hai yeh! Everybody had a decent house. Is that a societal opportunity ? Yes it is.

Would you be interested in a banking licence?

We will see when it happens.

What do you think of the giving pledge?

There are different points of view. My own view is that it's important that one should create sustainability and compassion. My view is that giving must be anonymous. Even if I did whatever I did, I wouldn't brag about it. I would do it for my own satisfaction . It is important you do it straight off your heart you don't talk about it.

Are you writing a book?

Lots of people approached me but I am not.


(Additional reporting by TV Mahalingam & Shuchi Srivastava)

Next-generation security and disaster management business seems to be next on the radar of Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries, which will utilise its 4G telecom services for this new initiative.

Besides, RIL also plans to partner a global major for this new business and is roping in Vivek Lall, formerly a top Indian executive of global defence major Boeing, to head this venture, sources said.

"Reliance sees strong synergies in our rolling out 4G Broadband Wireless services and their use for enabling Homeland Security, Safe, Secure & Smart Cities as well as Disaster Management preparedness," a person in the know of the matter said.

"RIL plans to partner with global leaders in this domain to bring the latest technologies and innovation," he said, adding that Vivek Lall will be joining to drive these efforts.

An RIL spokesperson did not offer any comments. Lall, who was Vice President and India Country Head of Boeing for defence, space and security businesses, recently left the US-based global aircraft and aerospace major.

Earlier, he has also served as managing director of Boeing Commercial Airplanes in India.

The new initiative of RIL would involve significant investments and details are being finalised, sources said.

The group plans to invest USD 4.5-4.7 billion in telecom business over the next five years. It has already spent USD 2.8 billion on acquiring 4G licences and spectrum, which it got last year through acquisition of Infotel.

Infotel was the only entity to get pan-India licence in the auction of Broadband Wireless Access spectrum conducted by the government last year.

Telecom is among the five main businesses and RIL group expects to focus on in the next 5-10 years.

The group is present in energy and retail sectors, while mega plans are underway for telecom and finance sectors. Besides, it has also acquired a strategic stake in a cargo airline founded by aviation entrepreneur Captain Gopinath.

RIL is currently in the process of finalising arrangement with leading global technology players, service providers, infrastructure providers, application developers, device manufacturers and others for its 4G telecom service offerings.

Globally, also the countries are gearing up to utilise 4G (fourth generation) broadband technology in their homeland security and disaster management practices.

In February, the US President Barack Obama announced that his government would spend USD 10.7 billion to build a nationwide 4G broadband network for public safety agencies, including police and fire departments.

The US has felt the need for a national broadband network ever since the terror attacks of September 11, 2001.

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